Trifecta Manual
Trifecta is a trivergent engine that reads regime, volatility, and deviation in one view. It emits rule based entries and exits you can wire to alerts. The aim is clarity and discipline so you act when odds are healthier and stand down when they are not. In testing on clean datasets the model has shown periods of outperformance versus buy and hold with different drawdown and a different path. These are model results for education, not personalized advice.
What it is
A rules driven routine that aligns participation with favorable regimes, sizes by volatility, and uses standard deviation context to avoid chasing noise. It works across indices and liquid equities when paired with the correct volatility anchors and clean data.
People do not buy trading tools. They buy confidence that the next trade will not derail their month. Trifecta is designed to create that confidence with simple rules you can verify yourself.
How it works
Regime rope
A rope smoother on Heikin Ashi or classic candles classifies trend state as up, down, or flat. Flat marks consolidation. State changes drive the accumulation logic and exits so you do not debate your bias on each bar.
Volatility gate
VIX and VXN percentiles on a yearly style window set the participation gate. Longs are allowed when both anchors sit below a low percentile. Exposure is reduced or flattened when both exceed a high percentile. Stop distance scales with a risk divisor that reflects current volatility.
Standard deviation bands
A moving average with deviation bands frames pullbacks and flips. Long bias persists while price holds above the average and recent lows. Short entries are optional when regime turns down and volatility is in a normal band.
Clean reporting
A monthly and yearly table summarizes realized return, drawdown, MAR, and CAGR. Commission in the reference script is zero point zero three percent per order and is included in the totals.
Inputs
symbol_stock
Default QQQ. Use the instrument that matches your dataset and session. Prefer liquid tickers with stable feeds.
ha
Toggle Heikin Ashi for the rope smoothing source. True reduces noise. False uses classic candles.
len and multi
Volatility length and multiplier for the rope channel. Start with defaults. Change slowly after journal review.
vix_symbol and vix_symbol2
Volatility anchors. VXN for NASDAQ and VIX for SPX in the default setup.
long_thr and flat_thr
Percentile thresholds that open the gate for longs and trigger flattening when risk rises.
risk_div_sl
Stop loss percent equals current volatility divided by this value. Larger divisor means tighter stops.
length, retention, deviation multipliers
Moving average window, retention window, and band multipliers for the deviation engine.
Signals and states
- Long entry when regime turns up or exits a down state into flat and then up while the volatility gate is permissive.
- Long exit when regime shifts from up to flat or when the volatility percentile exceeds the exit threshold.
- Optional short entry when regime flips to down and volatility sits in a normal band. Exit on regime change or rule breach.
- Stops trail by the volatility divisor. Re entry logic can reopen a position after a profitable close in the same bar when flat.
These are model signals for research and education. They are repeatable and testable. You decide timing, sizing, and execution. Your slippage and fills are your responsibility.
Workflow
- Select the correct symbol and session. Confirm clean data and liquid markets.
- Set the volatility thresholds. Example long below fifteen percentile and flatten above seventy five percentile.
- Confirm regime state. Act only when rules align with the volatility gate.
- Place the stop using current volatility divided by the risk divisor. Update after each bar close.
- Journal every decision and compute your Discipline Score each week.
Risk and limits
- Use fixed portfolio risk per trade and respect a daily loss cap.
- Reduce size as volatility widens stops. Stand down in extreme percentiles.
- Prefer liquid instruments and reliable feeds. Live execution is outside this manual.
Testing notes
Backtests use realized equity and the internal performance table. Commission is included at zero point zero three percent per order in the reference script. On major indices and liquid tickers the model has shown periods of strong compounding with fewer trades and manageable time in drawdown compared to pure buy and hold. The edge comes from only pressing when regime and volatility conditions align.
Backtest caveats
- Historical results are hypothetical and rely on data quality and assumptions including commission and execution.
- No slippage model captures all market conditions. Your fills can differ.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market structure can change.
FAQ
Does this generate signals
Yes. Rule based entries and exits as described above. They are model outputs that you can connect to alerts.
Does it beat benchmarks
In several historical windows the model outperformed buy and hold with different drawdown and a different path. Past results are not a promise. Your discipline still drives outcomes.
Does the performance table include commission
Yes. Zero point zero six percent round trip in the example configuration.
Can I change thresholds
Yes. Adjust after a journal review with sufficient sample size. Change one variable at a time to avoid curve fitting.
Compliance
Educational analytics and model signals. No personalized investment advice. We do not assess suitability, we do not execute trades, and we do not hold client assets. You are responsible for your decisions, sizing, and execution.
This product is offered as research and software access. Payments via Stripe or crypto are for software and educational content, not for investment services. Taxes and refunds are handled by Stripe where applicable. Crypto payments may be subject to basic AML checks.
Built with European regulatory context in mind and framed as education and research. Nothing here should be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in specific transactions.
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