Hercules IBS US Investment
An intraday balance strategy for the US market that buys weakness that is likely to mean revert and sells strength that is likely to fade, only when trend strength allows. It reads IBS against a rolling band, confirms with ADX, and manages exits with simple day over day triggers. Signals are rule based and alert ready so you can act with confidence instead of guessing.
People do not buy strategies. They buy the feeling that their next decision is grounded. IBS US is designed to create that feeling with transparent rules you can test line by line.
How it works
IBS mean reversion core
IBS measures where the close sits inside the daily range of the chosen symbol. Long bias when IBS is below the long threshold and the day is red. Short bias when IBS is above the short threshold, price sits under the two hundred session average, and the day is green. It is the classic intraday balance logic with strict guardrails.
Rolling band context
A rolling high over ten sessions and a rolling mean of range over twenty five sessions build a dynamic lower band. The band prevents chasing weakness that is already stretched and frames risk for entries near the edge.
ADX trend filter
Trades only engage when the ADX style signal exceeds sixteen. Positions are closed or avoided when it drops to fifteen or below. This keeps the model out of no strength days where noise dominates.
Exit on day over day level
Longs exit when price exceeds the previous day high on the correlated feed. Shorts exit when price breaks below the previous day low. Simple, binary, and easy to verify on any chart.
Correlation and reverse mode
You can compute IBS and levels on a correlated symbol like QQQ while trading another instrument. You can also reverse the order direction for instruments that move inverse to risk, for example volatility indexes. Use these features only when you understand the relationship and have tested it.
Inputs
benchmark
If true, IBS and levels use the correlated symbol feed. Default uses QQQ. When false, the strategy uses the active chart feed.
symbol
The correlation source. Default QQQ. Choose a liquid, reliable feed that reflects your traded instrument.
IBSthreshold and IBSthreshold2
Long threshold and short threshold for IBS. Lower values bias more selective entries. Start around zero point nine as in the reference script, then tune only after journal review.
rolling periods and band multiplier
Twenty five session rolling mean of range and ten session rolling high, with a lower band multiplier of two point five in the reference script. These shape the stretch filter that avoids bottom fishing too early.
reverse
Flips order direction for inverse assets. Use with care and only after confirming the inverse relationship on your dataset.
commission value
Default commission is zero point zero one percent per order in the reference script. Numbers in the performance table include this setting.
an
Start year for including trades. Use it to align the backtest window and avoid data regime shifts that would distort results.
Signals
- Long entry when IBS is under the long threshold, the day is red on the selected feed, and trend strength is above sixteen on the ADX style signal.
- Short entry when IBS is above the short threshold, price is under the two hundred session average, the day is green, and trend strength is above sixteen.
- Long exit when price exceeds the previous day high on the selected feed, or when trend strength falls to fifteen or below.
- Short exit when price breaks the previous day low on the selected feed, or when trend strength falls to fifteen or below.
- Reverse mode applies the same logic but flips order direction. Use only for inverse assets that you have validated.
Signals are model outputs for research and education. They are repeatable and alert ready through the message fields for entries and exits. You decide timing, size, and execution. Your slippage and fills are your responsibility.
Workflow
- Select your traded symbol and choose whether to drive signals from a correlated source like QQQ.
- Confirm data cleanliness and session alignment. Avoid mixed sessions or stale feeds.
- Set IBS thresholds and keep them stable for a full sample. Over tuning kills edge.
- Require ADX style strength above sixteen for new entries. Close or skip when fifteen or below.
- Use day over day levels for exits. No debate. Log every action and update your Discipline Score weekly.
Risk
- Use fixed risk per trade and a daily loss cap. Flat is a valid state.
- Reduce size when realized volatility rises. Avoid adding during weakness that fails the band and strength checks.
- Prefer liquid instruments, clean feeds, and reliable venues. Avoid products with structural gaps that break day over day logic.
Testing notes
Backtests use realized equity from the strategy tester and the embedded monthly table. Commission at zero point zero one percent per order is included. On liquid US instruments this model has shown periods of outperformance versus buy and hold with fewer trades and controlled time in drawdown. The advantage comes from buying weakness only when context says the snap back is likely and from exiting on simple day over day levels.
Backtest caveats
- Historical results are hypothetical and rely on data quality and assumptions such as commission and execution.
- No slippage model can capture all conditions around gaps and news. Your fills can differ.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market microstructure and volatility regimes can change.
FAQ
Does it generate signals
Yes. Rule based entries and exits with alert messages for automation.
Can it beat buy and hold
In several historical windows it outperformed with different drawdown and a different return path. That does not promise future results. Discipline still decides outcomes.
Which tickers
Start with liquid US indices and large cap ETFs. If you use correlation, QQQ is the default, then expand only after a complete journal review.
What about inverse assets
Use reverse mode only after validating the inverse relationship and your exit logic on the selected dataset.
Compliance
Educational analytics and model signals. No personalized investment advice. We do not assess suitability, we do not execute trades, and we do not hold client assets. You are responsible for your decisions, sizing, and execution.
This product is offered as research and software access. Payments via Stripe or crypto are for software and educational content, not for investment services. Taxes and refunds are handled by Stripe where applicable. Crypto payments may be subject to basic AML checks.
Built with European regulatory context in mind and framed as education and research. Nothing here should be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in specific transactions.
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